Best of Ask the Agent: What Are the Odds I'll Get Published?
Our guest statistician strikes again! Sorry, yes, there's math in this answer.
Hi, it’s me, Jennifer Laughran, your friendly neighborhood literary agent. Welcome to another edition of “Best of Ask the Agent” (the Newsletter). Let’s get right into it:
“My question came up at writing group. I mentioned that I'm working on a middle grade novel, my first because I usually write for adults. A friend wondered if it was easier to get a MG novel published, as fewer people write them. I thought it was harder to publish in the children's market, and that plenty of children's books are written. Obviously, it's hard to publish either way, but do you think the odds are better in kids, adult, or neither?”
I don’t know much about statistics or odds-making, but I do know how to make friends. And one of my long-time BFFs happens to be a professional statistician, gambler, and publishing maven. No joke! I have enlisted their wisdom to hopefully get near an answer for your actually unanswerable question. So, straight from the expert’s mouth:
Let’s try a little cocktail-napkin-stats on this. (cocktail-napkin-stats imply not only that you’re doodling high-level math calculations for the sake of winning a bar argument, but also that you’re probably drunk, so ingest accordingly.)
Step 1: State the Question (or, if we were running an actual experiment, the Hypothesis)
Are the odds of publication higher in the juvenile or adult market?
Step 2: State the Assumptions
As the question does, we are assuming that the difficulty of publication is correlated to the availability of publication slots.
We are confining our calculation to English-language print fiction books distributed in the United States.
We assume all other things are equal across the juvenile and adult markets: namely, the quality of manuscript, access to nepotism, etc etc.
Step 3: Define our Variables
Availability of Publication Slots: Let’s use Bowker’s projected print ISBN stats for 2013. Sure, there are more recent data, but those aren’t the #1 Google result.
Adult Fiction: 49,853 Juvenile: 33,239
Number of Competitor Writers: Joseph Epstein’s 2002 NYT Op Ed piece is the most quoted figure for how many Americans are trying to write a book: 81% of them, although it references a survey I’ve never validated. But hey. It’s Joseph Epstein!
Since the available ISBNs was a 2013 figure, I used the ever fun US census clock (try it…it’s mesmerizing) to determine that 81% of the number of Americans in 2013, rounded up, was 256,000,000. And yes, non-Americans are also trying to publish and yes, a portion of that 256M figure - like the babies - aren’t actively trying to write a book, but for the sake of ratios-will-be-the-same-anyway let’s move ahead.
Step 4: Calculate
Adult: 49,853/256,000,000 = 0.0195%
Juvenile: 33,239/256,000,000 = 0.013%
Step 5: State Calculation Shortfalls
Bowker’s data includes self-published print titles, and given market trends it is highly likely that the % of print US distribution titles are higher within Adult Fiction than Juvenile. Given the success rate of publication for self-publishing can easily approach 100%, the adult fiction variable is likely overstated as to available slots.
The question above points to another factor: are there more people attempting to write adult books than juvenile books? There are several ways to get to this data…
* We could compare memberships in juvenile vs adult writing societies to confirm that indeed, they slant to higher memberships in adult-fiction organizations, however, we’d also have to rule out the possibility that it’s correlated to another variable, like juvenile writers being awkward af (kidding… kidding…).
* We could assume people are more likely to write what they read and split this distribution based on reading habits data.
* We could ask a Magic 8 ball.
Step 6: State your Answer
Given the availability of publication slots, it is likely more difficult to get published in adult than juvenile, but the odds really suck either way.
Step 7: Discussion
It’s good practice after any calculation or experiment to consider the “so-what” effect. As in - the odds of being published in adult may be slightly higher than juvenile, so what does that mean? I’m sure the question-asker and any reader who made it this far (wow - good for you, I mean, this is pretty dry stuff) know: it means nothing.
All other things aren’t equal.
Most people who want to write a book, won’t start.
Most people who start, won’t finish.
Most people who finish, won’t edit.
Most people who edit, won’t edit well and enough.
Most people who who are ready, won’t query.
Most people who fail the first time, won’t try again.
Writing is hard. Publishing is Hard. But beating the odds is actually pretty simple.
Series Spotlight: Meet Fergus and Zeke
Fergus and Zeke are highly illustrated books for young readers. (They’re also mice!). These books are a perfect choice for kiddos who are almost-but-not-quite ready for chapter books, or for parents or teachers who want a longer read-aloud that can still be accomplished in a sitting.
Fergus and Zeke love being the class pets in Miss Maxwell's classroom. From museum visits (book one) to science experiments (book two), they do everything the students do. But on Field Day, none of the events are the right size for the small mice -- the limbo is too easy, the high jump is too hard, and kickball is absolutely terrifying! So Fergus and Zeke create their own Field Day Challenge, with mouse-size tug-of-war, acorn throwing, and Hula-Hooping. After all the fun and exercise, it's time to go back to the classroom -- but Fergus and Zeke are locked out! Will they be able to use their new skills to get inside in time for ice pops?
FERGUS AND ZEKE AND THE FIELD DAY CHALLENGE by Kate Messner, with illustrations by Heather Ross, will be released in hardcover April 14 from Candlewick. The first two books in the series are available today, in paperback!
Thanks for reading! If you’d like this weekly newsletter to come straight to your inbox, subscribe. And feel free to share away! See ya next time. x JL